Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Monday, September 17, 2012
TIME: 07:55 am IST
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NSE CURRNCY FUTURES/MCX-SX CURRENCY FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
(All prices are in Indian rupees below in this report)
Commentary
The reforms announced on Friday evening in India are as below:
- Foreign direct investment in Aviation allowed upto 49%
- Foreign direct investment in Multi brand allowed upto 51%
- Foreign direct investment in Power sector
- 74 per cent foreign investment allowed in the cable and direct-to-home (DTH) services,
- Selling minority stakes in four public sector companies, Hindustan Copper, Oil India, MMTC and Nalco, to raise up to Rs. 15,000 crore.
These big reforms will result in inflows huge foreign exchange reserve in India. I do not think that there will be any political uncertainty in India and that the UPA will complete the full term. The UPA allies are not prepared for near term elections and that if elections happens any time this year the Congress party and its UPA allies will perform miserably. There will be just mild noises from UPA allies and nothing else.
The Indian rupee has formed a long term top against the US dollar and looks headed for 48.00 in the next twelve months against the US dollar. Rupee gains against the major currencies will be supported by strong global factors. The only risk to the long term bullish view on the rupee is a central election in the next six months. We might also see an upgrade in the Indian sovereign debt rating in the first quarter of 2013.
Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders
USD/INR SEPTEMBER: Sell on rise with a stop loss of 55.40 target 53.1500 and 52.7000
EURO/INR SEPTEMBER: Sell on rise with a stop loss over 71.90 target 69.87 and 69.41
GBP/INR SEPTEMBER: Sell on rise with a stop loss over 89.56 target 87.4550-86.7275
JPY/INR SEPTEMBER: Sell jpy/inr only below 69.4800 for 68.2950
TECHNICAL VIEW
US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 54.3225)
Bullish over 54.7000 with 55.010-55.3700 as price target
Bearish below 54.38 with 53.6325 and 53.3675 as price target
Neutral Zone: 54.7000-54.3800
BREAK POINT: - 54.1400
· Rupee can fall to 53.3675 as long as it trades below 55.70
· Another wave of selling will be there only below 54.1400 to 53.6375
EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 71.1550)
Bullish over 71.1500 with 71.5725-72.3525 as price target
Bearish below 71.0225 with 70.5125-69.8700 as price target
Neutral Zone: 71.0225-71.1500
BREAK POINT: 71.1500
- Euro/inr can fall to 70.5125 and 69.87 as long as it trades below 71.84
- Only a break of 71.84 will result in resumption of bullish trend else rise are a selling opportunity and nothing else.
UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 88.1475)
Bullish over 88.0200 with 88.7400 and 89.5625 as price target
Bearish below 87.9600 with 88.6950-87.2725 as price target
Neutral Zone: 87.9600-88.0200
BREAK POINT: 88.0200
· Pound/Inr can fall to 87.6950 and 87.2725 as long as it trades below 88.7475
· Only a break of 88.7475 will result in resumption of bullish trend else rise are a selling opportunity.
JAPANESE YEEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 69.6825)
Bullish over 70.0200 with 71.3700 and 70.7325 as price target
Bearish below 69.7800 with 69.0100 and 68.6325 as price target
Neutral Zone: 69.7800-70.0200
BREAK POINT: - 69.6325
- Yen can fall to 69.0100 and 68.6325 as long as it trades below 70.3700
- Only a break of 70.3700 will result in resumption of bullish trend else rise are a selling opportunity.
Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
Disclosure: The directors and employess do not have any open positions. Our clients do trade on the above report.
"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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