Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
TIME: 08:48 am IST
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NSE CURRNCY FUTURES/MCX-SX CURRENCY FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
(All prices are in Indian rupees below in this report)
Technical levels to watch
- Usd/inr september 100 day moving average is at 55.3275
Commentary
The Reserve Bank of India hiked the maximum limit to $3 billion for foreign borrowers under the external commercial borrowing (ECB) norms. FIIs can now invest up to USD five billion in rupee bonds within the overall corporate bond limit of $45 billion. Also, the Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) has been made as "an eligible borrower" for accessing ECB route for on-lending to the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME). The measures by the RBI suggest a desperate need for foreign inflows. Media reports suggest that there are around $8 billion to be paid as ECB repayments between now and October which will definitely add pressure on the rupee to weaken. However once the repayment is made rupee will starts its another round of gains.
The four trading sessions are very crucial fore the rupee due to global factors such as the federal reserve meeting among others.
Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders
USD/INR SEPTEMBER: Buy as near to 55.00 stop loss below 54.70 for tomorrow
EURO/INR SEPTEMBER: Buy only if euro/inr trades over 71.12 for 71.27-71.57
GBP/INR SEPTEMBER: Buy gbp/inr only if it trades over 89.05 for 89.27-89.77
JPY/INR SEPTEMBER: Sell jpy/inr only below 70.9300
TECHNICAL VIEW
US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 55.4625)
Bullish over 55.4650 with 55.6125-55.7900 as price target
Bearish below 55.3700 with 55.2100 and 55.1300 as price target
Neutral Zone: 55.3700-55.4650
BREAK POINT: - 55.4800
· 55.4650 is the key intra day support and usd/inr needs to trade over 55.4650 else it will fall to 55.21 and 55.05
· Another wave of selling will be there only below 55.4650
EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 70.8825)
Bullish over 71.0500 with 71.2100-71.9500 as price target
Bearish below 70.8950 with 70.6725-70.5700 as price target
Neutral Zone: 70.8950-71.0500
BREAK POINT: 70.9300
- Euro/inr needs can rise to 71.23-72.30 as long as it trades over 70.7950. There will be a technical break down only below 70.7950 all the way to 70.3325
UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 88.8450)
Bullish over 88.7450 with 89.2150 and 89.5750 as price target
Bearish below 88.6800 with 88.3750-88.2100 as price target
Neutral Zone: 88.6800-88.7450
BREAK POINT: 89.0225
· Pound/Inr needs to break 89.0225 to target 89.37-89.79.
· There will be sellers as long as cable trades below 89.0225
JAPANESE YEEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) SEPTEMBER – (CURRENT PRICE 71.0275)
Bullish over 70.9050 with 71.1900 and 71.5300 as price target
Bearish below 70.6550 with 70.3700 and 70.1200 as price target
Neutral Zone: 70.6550-70.9050
BREAK POINT: - 70.9425
- Yen targets 71.1925-71.53 as long as it trades over 70.8850.
- Key support is at 70.8850 and there will be sellers only below 70.8850
Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
Disclosure: The directors have short positions in usd/inr and jpy/inr
"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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