Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
TIME 09:22 AM IST
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US DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE REPORT (ONLY FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS)
The much hype UPA policy changes turned out to be a damn squib. Increase the limit of foreign institutional investor (FII) exposure in government securities and reducing the lock in period of FII's in infrastructure projects failed to dent market sentiment. Infact we were looking for opening of private sector airlines to FII's and allowing multi brand retail to foreign companies. Unless these two areas are opened the negative mood among overseas investor will prevail. Rupee will trade in an overall bearish view. Technically rupee needs to break 57.70 against the US dollar else it will fall to 54.50.
The negative sentiment on Indian economy and the rupee is at its peak. Month end demand and importers covering their short term payables has resulted has added to the demand. Indian importers are generally less in the July to September quarter. If rupee stabilizes and crude oil prices continue to fall then a long term high will be formed for the rupee (against the US dollar) soon.
| DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | ||||||
|
| LTP | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | 50 DAY MA | 100 DAY MA | 200 DAY MA |
| USD/INR |
|
|
|
|
| |
| SPOT | 56.9200 | 57.3250 | 43.8650 | 54.5275 | 52.3551 | 51.4993 |
| 1 MTH | 33.50 | 49.25 | 1 | 34.64 | 36.42 | 33.11 |
| 2 MTH | 67.50 | 82.75 | 4 | 66.63 | 69.85 | 62.56 |
| 3 MTH | 99.00 | 114.75 | 11.75 | 96.44 | 99.61 | 88.51 |
| 6 MTH | 173.00 | 203 | 39 | 170.20 | 175.35 | 153.09 |
| 9 MTH | 244.50 | 275 | 66 | 234.88 | 241.38 | 206.22 |
| 12 MTH | 313.25 | 338.25 | 91 | 298.15 | 302.78 | 253.09 |
Technically speaking: Rupee needs to trade over 56.35 else it will fall to 55.80 and 55.48
NSE CURRENCY USD/INR JULY CMP 57.2425
Bullish over 56.9750 with 57.53 and 57.84 as price target
Bearish below 56.7900 with 56.65-56.0900 as price target
Neutral Zone: 56.9750-56.7900
BREAK POINT: - 57.10
· Usd/inr needs to break 57.84 by Friday else it will fall to 56.09
· There will be sellers only below 56.97
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
USD/INR: 0.07-1.012
EURO/INR: 0.20-0.30
GBP/INR: 0.20-0.30
JPY/INR: 0.15-0.20
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