Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
TIME 08:39 AM IST
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US DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE REPORT (ONLY FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS)
Rupee weakened yesterday on short covering and demand by importers and after the reserve bank of India did not cut the repo rate or reduced bank reserve ratio citing inflationary concerns. Fitch downgrade also added to rupee woes.
The concern of the RBI is justified as cutting interest rates will not create growth momentum. Other measures have to be taken by the UPA government which is not there. Month end demand will start to pick up from now which will prevent sharp gains for the rupee.
The UPA government is more involved with the President election and we expect the reforms to pick up pace once the elections are over and also cool down the global negative sentiment.
| DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | |||||||
|
| LTP | % CHG | 12 mth % | YTD % | 50 DAY MA | 100 DAY MA | 200 DAY MA |
| USD/INR |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| SPOT | 55.7800 | -0.16 | 24.41 | 5.23 | 54.0017 | 51.9694 | 51.2737 |
| 1 MTH | 31.25 | 0 | 23.76 | -9.42 | 34.68 | 36.36 | 32.68 |
| 2 MTH | 63.50 | 0 | 30.93 | -0.78 | 66.62 | 69.83 | 61.70 |
| 3 MTH | 91.75 | 0 | 26.12 | 2.80 | 96.19 | 99.55 | 87.24 |
| 6 MTH | 160.25 | 0 | 16.55 | -3.03 | 170.47 | 175.08 | 150.65 |
| 9 MTH | 225.25 | 0 | 17.78 | 0.56 | 235.08 | 240.55 | 202.52 |
| 12 MTH | 290.50 | 0 | 20.17 | 8.70 | 297.44 | 301.04 | 248.09 |
Technically speaking: There is an head and shoulder formation which suggests that rupee can weaken to 56.25-56.35 range once again. Importers should cover their month payables around 55.50 and below while exporters use atop loss 55.05 for their near term receivables.
NSE CURRENCY USD/INR JUNE
Bullish over 56.1550 with 56.2700-56.4100-56.8925 as price target
Bearish below 55.8900 with 55.7050-55.4300 as price target
Neutral Zone: 55.8900-56.1550
BREAK POINT: - 56.1550
· Usd/inr can rise to 56.41-56.82 as long as it trades over 55.89
· There will be sellers only below 55.89.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
USD/INR: 0.07-1.012
EURO/INR: 0.20-0.30
GBP/INR: 0.20-0.30
JPY/INR: 0.15-0.20
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