Monday, August 06,
2018
WEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORT FOR
COMEX/NYMEX FUTURE
Key central bank meetings are over. US nonfarm payrolls are over. It is
almost certain that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more time
this year. World gold council says that gold demand is the lowest since 2009.
Europe is buying gold which is a green shoot. The self-induced migrant crisis
in Europe will result in Europe buying gold like the Asians. Belgium, Holland,
France among the few are all miserably affected by the migrants. Migrants rape,
steal, convert localities into Sharia zone defying the national law but state
does not do anything to them. Even the media does not report the real migrant
shit. The fear created by migrants will result in more and more peace loving
traditional people of Europe buying more physical gold. As far as Asian demand
is concerned, this is just a passing phase, there will be higher demand from
October onwards.
But I am not so optimistic on Indian gold demand. The cyclical Hindu
festival related gold demand and gold jewelery demand will be there till Mid
November and thereafter India will move into a zero demand period. The only
reason is that the growth in Indian economy is purely on paper. The income of
the real gold buying class is on the decline. Those who income are increasing
are not buying gold jewelery. They are buying diamond jewelry and investing in
stocks and real estate.
I am not concerned about lower gold demand in August or September. If
Asian gold demand falls in October, then I will be seriously concerned. Silver
continues to be untouchable to the world.
Supply side pressures is preventing crude oil from a massive crash. The
American and European summer travel season will end in fourty days time. After
that crude oil demand will start to slide. I am very pessimistic on global
crude oil demand in the fourth quarter. If fundamentals are weak, then Iran and
other supply side fears will automatically vanish.
If you are an industrial metals traders then think of long term
fundamentals.
Factors to look ahead
Focus is on Chinese retaliation of Trump induced trade war. Global
business confidence is sinking. There is no big US economic data release this
week. It will be a technical trade. There can be sudden knee jerk one way
moves, followed by very long periods of consolidation. The US dollar Index is
over brought. If metals fall this week, then I expect short covering in the
option market and another knock down. Use the fall in metals to invest for the
long term. Short term investors and day traders could have a difficult time to
judge the trend.
COMEX
COPPER SEPTEMBER FUTURE
Current
Market Price: $274.80
Support:
$262.00-$266.20-$269.70-$273.20
Resistance:
$281.40-$286.40-$289.60
Weekly
View:
· 200 week moving average
at $262.00 is the key long term support.
· Immediate resistance is
at 100 week moving average at $280.60
· Copper can rise to
$292.10 as long as it trades over $262.00
· Small sell off only
below $273.20.
· Remain on the
sidelines.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE
REPORT
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All price above are in US dollars,
unless otherwise specified.
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
UK session starts around 1:00 pm
Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
US session starts at 6pm pm Indian
Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE
REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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