Monday, October 01, 2012
TIME: 08:50 am IST
NSE CURRNCY FUTURES/MCX-SX CURRENCY FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
(All prices are in Indian rupees below in this report)
The finance minister had said last Friday that Indian rupee should gain to 50.00 against the US dollar over the coming months. This will prevent traders from going long. Domestic factors are no longer highly negative for the rupee. There is speculation that petrol prices will be reduced this week. A stronger rupee will bring inflation down over the coming weeks and a higher chance of an interest rate cut by the reserve bank of India in November. Global factors and the performance of the US dollar will dictate the rupee more than domestic factors. I will prefer to use caution if rupee falls below 52.00 against the US dollar this week. The pace of gains is more important than the gains.
October should see huge US dollar inflows from Non resident Indians and Indian working overseas due to the festival months. The key will be whether importers will continue to postpone their payables or whether they cover on spot basis.
Technically rupee has formed a long term top against the US dollar, euro, UK pound and Japanese yen. I do not expect last quarter highs to be broken in the next six months unless the US dollar is dumped.
Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders
USD/INR OCTOBER: Sell on rise with a stop loss over 53.7400 for this week. Jobbers can buy usd/inr over 53.1650 for 53.3975.
EURO/INR OCTOBER: Sell euro/inr if and only if trades below 68.5650
GBP/INR OCTOBER: Sell gbp/inr if and only if trades below 85.7800
JPY/INR OCTOBER: Buy jpy/inr only if trades over 68.5325
US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 53.0525)
Bullish over 53.3450 with 53.4950-53.7400 as price target
Bearish below 53.1650 with 52.9350 and 52.6100 as price target
Neutral Zone: 53.1650-53.3450
BREAK POINT: - 53.1650
· The key long term resistance is at 53.6950 and usd/inr can gain to 52.6100 and 52.1450 as long as it trades below 53.6950
· Over sold conditions exist and it remains to be seen how long momentum defies technical.
EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 68.5550)
Bullish over 68.5650 with 68.8750-69.2300 as price target
Bearish below 68.4150 with 68.0300-67.7825 as price target
Neutral Zone: 68.4150-68.5650
BREAK POINT: 68.5650
- Key long term support is at 68.5650 and euro/inr needs to trade over 68.5650 to target 68.8750-69.4750.
- There will be a technical break down below 68.5650 to 67.7825
UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 85.9050)
Bullish over 85.7800 with 86.1500 and 86.8475 as price target
Bearish below 85.2950 with 84.5725-83.9425 as price target
Neutral Zone: 85.2950-85.7800
BREAK POINT: 85.7800
· There is a technical congestion between 85.2950-85.7800 and as long as gbp/inr trades over this zone (in short term) it will rise to 87.3975-88.7600.
· Today there will be sellers only below 85.7800
JAPANESE YEEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 68.2875)
Bullish over 68.6700 with 68.9700 and 69.8600 as price target
Bearish below 68.5375 with 67.8950 and 67.4650 as price target
Neutral Zone: 68.5375-68.6700
BREAK POINT: - 65.5375-68.6700
- The key long term support is at 67.7425 and jpy/inr can rise to 69.8650 as long as it trades over 67.7425.
Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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