Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
TIME 09:30 AM IST
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US DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE REPORT (ONLY FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS)
India has decided to contribute $10 in the IMF fund for Europe. Most of us will think that it is a step in the wrong direction. Contributions should be made once the economic woes are over. Rupee is being dictated by the general direction of the US dollar. Importers are covering their near term payables on dips as rupee is still trading over 55.00. There is huge expectation that there will be big measures to attract foreign investment in India after the Indian presidential elections are over. If this does not happen then rupee could witness another wave of weakness.
The reserve bank of India governor has said that inflation is above tolerance levels which suggest that there will not be any interest rate cuts unless inflation stabilizes. Monsoon rains will be the key for inflation.
| DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | ||||||
|
| LTP | % CHG | YTD % | 50 DAY MA | 100 DAY MA | 200 DAY MA |
| USD/INR |
|
|
|
|
| |
| SPOT | 55.7800 | -0.16 | 5.23 | 54.0901 | 52.0369 | 51.3149 |
| 1 MTH | 35.50 | 0 | 2.90 | 34.73 | 36.39 | 32.79 |
| 2 MTH | 66.00 | 0 | 3.13 | 66.58 | 69.82 | 61.88 |
| 3 MTH | 96.00 | 0 | 7.56 | 96.17 | 99.51 | 87.52 |
| 6 MTH | 168.25 | 0 | 1.82 | 170.26 | 175.05 | 151.19 |
| 9 MTH | 236.25 | 0 | 5.47 | 234.82 | 240.59 | 203.32 |
| 12 MTH | 302.75 | 0 | 13.28 | 297.29 | 301.25 | 249.14 |
Technically speaking: Rupee needs to break and trade over 56.15 else it will trade in wider 55.50-56.15 range.
NSE CURRENCY USD/INR JUNE
Bullish over 56.0750 with 56.2700-56.4100-56.8925 as price target
Bearish below 55.8900 with 55.7050-55.4300 as price target
Neutral Zone: 55.8900-56.1550
BREAK POINT: - 56.1550
· Usd/inr needs to break 56.32 today else it will fall to 55.68
· There will be sellers only below 55.89.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT
USD/INR: 0.07-1.012
EURO/INR: 0.20-0.30
GBP/INR: 0.20-0.30
JPY/INR: 0.15-0.20
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